Retail sales stayed strong in August, despite sluggish job market

WASHINGTON — In an encouraging sign of consumer resilience, retail sales continued to rise in August despite a sluggish job market, according to the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor released by the National Retail Federation (NRF). The data, powered by Affinity Solutions, indicates that easing inflation and steady consumer demand have helped to drive sales growth, even as labor market growth shows signs of slowing.

"Consumers are still prioritizing spending on essential items despite a slower job market," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. "We expect the Federal Reserve to respond by lowering interest rates this month, which should stabilize the economy further heading into the holiday season. Even with slower employment growth, unemployment is near historical lows and ongoing job and wage gains coupled with lower inflation should keep consumers on solid footing heading into the holiday season. Lower interest rates take time to trickle down and won’t provide an immediate boost but should stabilize the economy."

Retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were up 0.45% month over month in August, marking a 2.11% rise year over year. Core retail sales—excluding restaurants—saw a modest 0.17% increase month over month, with a 1.93% jump compared to the previous year. Online sales led the charge, soaring 17.03% year over year, followed by gains in clothing, health, and personal care stores.

Despite some declines in categories like electronics, appliances, and sporting goods, the overall retail landscape remains buoyed by relatively high consumer confidence. With unemployment hovering near historic lows and inflation easing, retailers are hopeful for solid momentum through the year’s end.

Online and other non-store sales were up 1.49% month over month (seasonally adjusted) and up 17.03% year over year (unadjusted). For health and personal care stores those increases were 0.28% month over month and 6.69% year over year, and for grocery and beverage stores they were 0.86% month over month and up 2.53% year over year. General merchandise stores were up 0.28% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 1.94% year over year unadjusted.